and city of chicago close to a deal. hope chicago kids will be back in school monday. >> means romney sitting behind his desk smoking a cigar. >> who knew the smile was a heathen. >> speaking of ed gillespie, need to let that guy have a bigger hand in the campaign. it's way too early, time for "morning joe." >> stick around for chuck. another night of violent anti-american protest in egypt as four suspects are arrested in libya. how does the white house contain a crisis that shows no signs of slowing down? meanwhile the president opened up leads in key balancing ground states. perhaps more important, changing attitudes about the direction of the country. the result of our new nbc wall street poll straight ahead. plus what does your grocery shopping list say about your vote? we're going to take you behind the secret science of winning

elections in the 21st century. how campaigns try to predict voting behavior. good morning from washington, friday september 14th, 2012. this is daily rundown, i'm chuck todd, daily reads of the morning. protests in the muslim world inspired by the video. protesters clash with police in front of the u.s. embassy before a protest called by the muslim brotherhood for after friday prayers. protesters threw stones and molotov cocktails. protests escalated in malaysia, bangladesh and sudan. in yemen, protesters clashed with police outside the u.s. embassy for the second straight day. protests have spread to at least 11 countries including pakistan, iran, and iraq. meanwhile in libya, authorities made four arrests after the attack on the u.s. consulate in benghazi that killed four americans. the top libyan security

physician said the attack was possibly aided by infiltrators who knew the route that consulate staff was trying to use to escape. now, two americans killed in the attack were identified thursday as two former navy s.e.a.l.s. tyrone woods of portland, oregon, former military veteran and father of two and glen doherty from massachusetts. back at home mitt romney made sulgs jobs on foreign policy. campaigning in battleground virginia, romney offered this message. >> american leadership, the middle east needs american leadership and i intend to be a president that provides the leadership that america respects. >> and romney was relatively measured responding to this barb of the president concerning an interviewing on telemundo. >> i have observed there's a tendency to shoot without aim.

>> asked about it, romney chose no, sir to swing back. >> the exact same conclusion the white house reached. the statement was inappropriate. that's why they backed away from it as well. >> but the romney campaign has escalated their attacks on the president this morning telling "the washington post" that the deadly protest sweeping the middle east would not have happened if romney were president. foreign policy adviser rich williamson is quoted, there's a pretty compelling story that if you had a president romney you'd be in a different situation. for the first time since jimmy carter, we've had an american ambassador assassinated. he also slammed the president on egypt saying the president can't even keep track of who is our ally or not. this is amateur hour. romney's chief strategist stewart stevens asserted romney has the better temperament to be commander in chief saying, quote, it was an issue with barack obama four years ago. he had stumble after stumble for foreign policy. he's run for president twice and

it's not been his problem. the white house and state department did scramble to explain the president's suggestion that egypt is no longer a u.s. ally. a statement that got criticism yesterday from none other than jimmy carter. >> we ought to reach out a hand of friendship and encouragement to the egyptians and let them proceed in forming their own government. >> state department spokeswoman victoria newland did her best to explain why the president downgraded status. >> for the president's comments i'm going to send you to the white house. as a matter of fact and practice the word allally" generally is d with a treaty ally, which the fact of the matter we have a close and london standing partnership with the government of egypt. >> of course under that definition is israel an ally.

israel is a treaty ally. couple of other things on this, by the way. expect the bodies of ambassador stevens and everybody coming back to the united states, don't be surprised if you see the president greet the dead bodies when they come back to the united states later today. now, despite the focus on foreign policy fight, both the president and romney have also seemed anxious on the trail yesterday to turn back to domestic issues. look at romney. he tried to boost support among women. every speaker at the romney rally in virginia, other than romney, was a woman. the campaign made sure women were featured prominently behind romney when he spoke. >> i had a chance to meet a woman entrepreneur. i met a lot of them. i met one and said to her, how duties your business started? she said, well, my husband lost his job -- >> stumping in colorado the president tried to connect with voters on the personal level as he's been doing using his own biography in an attempt to show a subtle contrast with romney. >> let's face it, a mixed kid

from hawaii born to a single mom is not likely to become president of the united states. >> then there was vice president biden who stumped in paul ryan's home state of wisconsin. ryan was back on capitol hill to vote for a six-month stopgap spending bill and he got a hero's welcome from the conference. >> great to be here. great to be back. i miss them. >> more people -- [ inaudible ] >> you miss this place? >> i do. i do. >> heads up, heads up, heads up. >> was that that a trick question? no, a lot of good memories here. >> so where do things stand? in an interview that aired this morning on nbc, romney responded to all the republican hand wringing about the state of the race. you know, beating an incumbent is never easy. the president exudes an air of likability and friendliness, which is endearing.

but at the same time i think people recognize he's not done the job they expected him to do and that he promised he would do. i'm virtually tied in the poll, some days up, some days down a point or two. we're doing well in the swing states. the outcome is decided by the people in the middle. >> that brings us to our new nbc wall street poll. call is the triangle, the path 270 electoral votes run through these three states, florida, ohio, virginia. this morning our new poll shows president obama is ahead of mitt romney in all three of them. in florida the president leads romney by 5 points among likely voterings, 49-44. the president also siting with a five-point lead in virginia, 49-44. in ohio the president leads 50, seven points ahead of mitt romney. according to battleground map romney needs to capture at least two of these states if not all three to get to 270 electoral votes. the president could hit or

surpass by winning just one. if he wins two, he checkmates romney. keep your eye on the president's number. if he's polling at 49 or 50 the sunday before the election he's going to win. right now that number is matching his job rating, 49% of likely voters in florida and ohio, florida and virginia, 50% of voters in ohio approve of the job he's doing. romney's biggest asset has been the sour attitude voters have about the direction of the country. that is what shifted here and it's a change that could be critical if it's long-standing. some democrats i've talked to say this is the bill clinton bump. though voters still aren't satisfied the trend line is moving in the president's direction. in florida 42% of voters think the country is on the right track p that's up from 39% in may. in may the president was under water on that question by 18 points. now that margin is just 10. in virginia the right track number is also in the 40s, at 42, up from 38 in may. in ohio, 44%, up 3 points from may when the number was 41.

don't forget as romney has been doom and gloom about the economy, all three states have governors, republican, mind you, who have been talking up the economy in those three states. >> when we came into office we were 48th in job creation. you know where we are today? fourth in america in job creation and number one in the midwest. >> in virginia over the last two years with republicans and democrats working together, our unemployment rate is down 20% to 5.9%. >> we have every reason to brag about what's going on in our state. every economic catindicator wile good. >> finally, the president stumps in painesville, after he leaves washington paul ryan is headed to harrisonberg, virginia. one thing that's particularly striking, most voters in battleground states have made up their mind.

the campaigns are fighting over an incredibly small slice of the electorate. only 5% and 6% in ohio called themselves undecided. leading director of the marist poll institute for public opinion. that is what i took away from our call yesterday when we were going through the numbers. you said these polls look like polls you normally would see the weekend before an election. explain that. >> that's what you hear the polarization we're talking about. people have picked sides. what we're seeing is a very low undecided. most people tell us they have already made up their mind. only a handful, 1 or 2% saying they might vote differently if they are committed to a candidate. the intensity of support for those who say they like someone is up in the 80s. so this is an electorate that pretty much is now all about from the campaign standpoint

mobilization, persuasion going to take a second seat right now. this is about getting your base out not about appealing to a shrinking middle, which is very, very small, indeed. >> i want to stick with the undecides. one of the things you did as we combined all of the undecided voters in all three states into one sample so it would be a little larger so we could see who they are. you said you didn't think they even looked like voters. explain that. >> what they are -- it's a subset of the electorate. we put them together to get a sense of who these handful of voters are. they tend to be a bit more white, tend to be a bit more women. but more critically in all this, folks not that enthusiastic about the campaign. so the question is do they ultimately vote. you know, on the question of the economy, they are really very much unsure as to whether romney or obama is better. they tip in obama's way on foreign policy, which is an interesting point given recent

international developments. >> sure. >> and the negatives for romney, he's minus 11 on the favorable, unfavorable. obama is plus 10. so romney to the degree this might hold out some hope for him, this handful of undecided voter, that's a little remote. stay home, not go his way. >> i was struck by the fact 31% undecided when they talked about approving the president's job, talk about voters not paying attention. the number almost everybody else has an opinion on. i want to move to the gender gap. >> these are not connected voters. >> i want to move to the gender gap in all three of these states. double digit leads for the president among women, single digit leads for romney among men. what stood out? >> in florida for obama among women. look, there's no secret here. this is what campaigns did at the convention. this is the gender gap.

it's enormous. it's the mayor, the difference for obama now. first read yesterday, all women behind him. they are trying desperately to close the gender gap because that's the only place they can find numbers now. >> quickly on who would better handle the issue of the economy, dead heat among those, romney or romney only led by a point or two in all three states. >> yeah. that's a real problem for him. this is part of the post democratic bounce. >> sunday through tuesday. >> the question is now not just are you better off than you were four years ago but the democrats have framed it is the country better off. when you get to that, the dialogue shifts. it's been framed differently. right now that's what obama is riding, doing it on the economy and especially foreign affairs although recent developments closely in the next round of the

polls. >> we know there are now sophisticated consumers of state polling and want to know our party ids. explain which ones were more democratic in '08 and which ones less democratic. >> pretty much spot on. we're seeing right now in each state within a point or two mirroring what the turnout was by party in each state in 2008. it's something we look at very closely for indication of enthusiasm, that gap really evaporated. so we're seeing now an electorate that looks more like '08 than '04. obviously that's why obama, these numbers are playing his way at the moment. >> florida slightly less democratic than '08 exits, ohio a little bit more. lee, director of -- all within the margin there. lee, thank you very much. we'll see you next week. we've got three more states coming then. up next congress kicks the can down the road. no shock there. at least now the lights won't go

out on the hill as lawmakers prepare to take take dive off that fiscal cliff. we're going to talk to members from both sides of the aisle next. still to come, a method to the message madness. we're uncovering the secret science of political advertising. first a look ahead at the schedules of the president and mitt romney. we told you where mitt romney was going today, ohio. the president not a lot of events on the schedule, a fundraising event. what's not on his calendar may be, don't be surprised if he meets the bodies of ambassador stevens and those others that died in the attack in libya, which they will be back stateside later today. you're watching "the daily rundown" only on msnbc. [ male announcer ] for the saver, and a big first step. for the spender who needs a little help saving. for adding "& sons." for the dreamer, planning an early escape. for the mother of the bride.

for whoever you are, for whatever you're trying to achieve, pnc has technology, guidance, and over 150 years of experience to help you get there. ♪ to help you get there. music: "make someone happy" music: "make someone happy" ♪it's so important to make someone happy.♪ it's so important to make someone happy.♪ ♪make just one heart to heart you - you sing to♪ ♪one smile that cheers you ♪one face that lights when it nears you.♪ ♪and you will be happy too. the calcium they take because they don't take it with food. switch to citracal maximum plus d. it's the only calcium supplement that can be taken with or without food. that's why my doctor recommends citracal maximum. it's all about absorption.

to compete on the global stage. what we need are people prepared for the careers of our new economy. by 2025 we could have 20 million jobs without enough college graduates to fill them. that's why at devry university, we're teaming up with companies like cisco to help make sure everyone's ready with the know how we need for a new tomorrow. [ male announcer ] make sure america's ready. make sure you're ready. at devry.edu/knowhow. ♪

i'm not confident at all. listen, the house has donist job on both the questions ter and on the looming tax hikes that will cost our economy some 700,000 jobs. >> speaker boehner said he's not confident at all that congress can reach a bipartisan agreement to avoid a fiscal cliff. we simply must. >> okay. just over three mondays left before a combination of deep spending cuts and tax hikes automatically take effect. there's bipartisan agreement that the u.s. is standing on the edge of a fiscal cliff but there's not much agreement on anything else. joining me now are members from both sides. republican congressman from oklahoma who sits on the defense appropriation committee and democratic congresswoman karen bass from california who sits on the house budget committee. congressman, let me start with you. you are a supporter of the questions terrace part of the budget control act in august '11. you were supportive of it, said

it was a good thing. obviously the whole point of sequester is to force negotiations. nobody wants cuts. nobody seals to be for they will on any side of the aisle. they turned into a political hot potato. playing politics with the sequester, has this been a mistake? >> i don't think so. i think you have to look at what the alternative was. the alternative would have been defaulting on the debt, which would have been catastrophic. this bought time. sad the super committee failed. there's still time. i think there will be an agreement because both sides did he test sequester. if the president wins he'll solve it by raising taxes. if the republicans win the election, they will solve it by doing what they did in may, pass reductions and reforms in nondiscretionary spending. >> do you agree with the assessment that basically the election will decide whether taxes go up or not? >> i actually do agree. i think there's no one in

congress who wants to say, null one, the sequester happen. number two, see the country go over the cliff. it takes until deadline for something to happen. i don't believe sequester will move forward. i think we need a balanced approach. i agree with my colleague it's going to take the election to determine that. >> for a quick update on the sequester, the white house has promised by today, they have said this multiple times, by today they will release the list of the proposed cuts in defense publicly as passed by the house. i want to talk about the farm bill. a big sticking point inside your conference. we looking simply at a one-year extension at this point and punting the five-year bill? >> that's the most likely outcome but not the the most

desirable outcome. frankly, as i've stated publicly, i argued my conference, we have a good bill. not perfect but good bill. i think congressman lucas and peterson worked well together and i think we ought to put it on the floor and have a straight up or down vote. i think it's a mistake. we have a bipartisan bill to move forward. there's going to be opposition on the right and left. find common ground and pass the bill and do work. >> congresswoman any more give with democrats on the issue? the whole sticking point appears to be the food stamp program? >> no, i really don't think there's any more give. especially now everybody is still hurting. i think people need to continue to receive the food stamps. i agree. i think it's going to be a while. i wouldn't be surprised if there was an extension. i think if it were to pass off the floor, i do think it would have trouble in the senate as

you know. >> quickly, congressman, you're a former pollster, state of the race now. romney behind? >> a little bit but not much. frankly, i think october is the decisive month. i think the real challenge that the president has, look, he's not going to win, if he wins, but as much as he did last time. he's lost considerable ground from the last election. if this election becomes do you want the next four years to be like the last four years, i think we'll win. no question governor romney needs to perform in debates and congressman ryan but i think we will. >> thank you guys for coming on together. you guys sound like you can get things done. >> i think we can. >> she's the speaker. she knows how to do things. thank you both. federal reserve make a move to get the economy moving. market rundown next. if cash is king, who is crowned in november. battleground spending. i'm bringing up the map, by the way. question, who is the most recent

candidate to win the white house but lose both the state where he was born and the state where he was residing in at the time of the election? the answer to@chuck todd or@daily rundown. it's tough, a friday trivia. should be. the answer coming up on "the daily rundown" when we come back. [ male announcer ] let's say you need to take care of legal matters. wouldn't it be nice if there was an easier, less-expensive option than using a traditional lawyer? well, legalzoom came up with a better way. we took the best of the old and combined it with modern technology. together you get quality services on your terms, with total customer support. legalzoom documents have been accepted in all 50 states, and they're backed by a 100% satisfaction guarantee. so go to legalzoom.com today and see for yourself. it's law that just makes sense. [ sneezes ]

[ male announcer ] if you have yet to master the quiet sneeze... ♪ [ sneezes ] [ male announcer ] you may be an allergy muddler. try zyrtec®. it gives you powerful allergy relief. and zyrtec® is different than claritin® because zyrtec® starts working at hour 1 on the first day you take it. claritin® doesn't start working until hour 3. [ sneezes ] [ male announcer ] zyrtec®. love the air. join zyrtec® rewards. save up to $7 on zyrtec® products. your soups are so awesomely delicious my husband and i can't stop eating 'em! what's...that... on your head? can curlers! tomato basil, potato with bacon... we've got a lot of empty cans. [ male announcer ] progresso. you gotta taste this soup.

map time. we know mope can't buy love, enough to buy support to tip the balance. they have combined spent over $553 million in nine battleground states so far. where is all that money going? team obama, let me show you a few things. just in this week alone. just looking at the map based on ad spending. here is where team obama is

outspending team romney. we heard about that romney money advantage, five states they are outspending romney campaign. colorado, florida is the big one. i told you about that. increased their buy big time. ohio, new hampshire, wisconsin. some marginal, new hampshire, almost two to one there. everywhere else, marginal. romney outspending in iowa, nevada, carolina, two to one. we're noticing is the president pulling back -- not pulling out of north carolina but pulling back. i think we're seeing evidence there. virginia virtually tied but romney technically ahead. we thought, all right, let's use these and see if spending really was the deciding factor on the road to 270, what it would mean. just for this week alone, if we give the president the state where he's outspending romney, where would that stand? obviously once you put florida in and florida alone, that's

big. but give them colorado, ohio, new hampshire and wisconsin and you see where that puts them at 307 where romney is outspending him, would get him up north carolina, virginia, iowa, nevada, only up to 231. that's what this florida move is so significant. right? if you take florida away from the president and give it to romney, the president would still be there. you see it brings other states in play. this florida move by the president to try to outspend romney there, force him into that state, take him out of other states is one of the more significant tactical things that happened this week. we know we're having a larger conversation, foreign policy, we'll see where that ends up. the tactical move with florida, the president's campaign decided to be not one foot in, one out, all in, potentially back to north carolina. significant move. we'll see how romney responds. global markets, u.s. futures get a big boost from fed's decision to launch qe3.

how long will it last? the market rundown, cnbc's becky quick. somebody joked to me that usually when there's a third of anything in the movies it's never that grade. godfather 3 wasn't that grade. jaws 3 wasn't that great. >> jaws 3 stunk. >> i would argue rocky 3 was great. what about qe3? >> a whole lot of skeptics. how much can it do? i ran some numbers. the fed's balance sheet since that operation began increased by $2 trillion. it's hard to get your head around by $2 electrical. i divided it by the number of americans in the united states. it's about $7,000 for every man, woman, and child in the united states. there are people starting to wonder if it would have just have been effective to write a check to people, let them have $7,000 apiece and reinvest that in the economy by spending.

having said that the markets have taken off, off to the races on this. this is ben bernanke saying we're all in at the poker table. there's no way we're going to stop doing this until the unemployment rate comes back down. by saying that, it makes it really difficult for anybody in the market to bet against that, to say interest rates will come up soon. stocks a much better place to put your money, 1.8 on the 10-year note or stocks or commodities or something else that might be taking off. that's why yesterday the market was up about 1.5% for the dow, now at its highest levels since december 2007. the nasdaq at their highest levels since november of 2000 because nobody wants to bet against the fed. >> gold, silver, platinum, too. >> all the commodities prices up, makes it really difficult to bet against any of this. you're not going to see pullbacks any time soon. >> go get a mortgage, i guess. >> chuck, by the way, we'll see you every day on squawk box. i'm signing you up for this.

>> i love being on, joe, andrew, you and the gang. that was fun. we'll talk politics next time on on. up next embassies in the middle east on alert. live to cairo, plus the deep dive into the new science of winning elections. daily rundown will be back in 30 seconds. hope heads to the middle east, kansas catchest the latest. conservatives in washington, for the summit, live pictures of the

event where we expect house majority leader eric cantor to speak, biggest speh from vice president candidate paul ryan. a few other leaders set to speak today. yes, that is growing pains kirk cameron speaking now. speaking of conservatives, a group in kansas says they don't have enough evidence yet to remove president obama's name from the 2012 ballot. three of the state's top elected republicans, attorney general, secretary of state and lieutenant governor postponed the decision on whether or not to remove the president's name from the ballot so more information on his citizenship can be gathered. the issue was raised yesterday by a kansas man who argued obama shouldn't be on the ballot because he wasn't born to parents who both were u.s. citizens. the state is going to get the president's records from hawaii before they make a final decision on monday. pope benedict in lebanon

this morning spreading a message of peace. while speaking with reporters on his plane, he said he was not afraid to visit lebanon and praised the arab spring saying, quote, it is a positive cry for freedom. upon landing the pontiff was greet bid a cheering crowd and the president. his trip will last a total of three days. stay in the middle east. anti-american protests have broken out in nearly a dozen countries and more expected as u.s. tightened security at outpost nationwide. in egypt sporadic near the u.s. embassy but seems to have been held back. nbc's jim maceda live in cairo. jim, there's been a kerfuffle domestically about whether the president made a mistake whether to qualify egypt as an ally or not an ally. all the diplomatic folks said, wait a minute, egypt is an ally. did president morsi get the message? suddenly the demonstrations been pulled back today?

>> chuck a good question. a tale of two protests quite frankly. near the u.s. embassy behind me you've got the same younger, more radical hard core protesters who continue to throw stones at riot police, who have blocked off the access tot the embase with a wall of concrete that frustrated protesters. canisters have been thrown back even after friday prayers, have been thrown back and forth. the muslim brotherhood groups marching constantly since friday prayers around the town, city, and square, tahrir square below me chanting loudly but peacefully, men, women, and children. it's been like this for several hours. as you mentioned early today morsi and on state tv endorsing the nationwide protest against that film, of course, but saying it's the muslim's responsibility to be peaceful and protect

foreign lives and foreign property when doing so. he specifically mentioned it. i've got no reports of violence here to mention to you. but again it feels like two different approaches. i would guess -- i would surmise that president morsi has, indeed, received president obama's message. back to you. >> all right. jim maceda, in cairo, thanks paragraph our deep dive, campaigns, a lot less about the candidate and more on you. for years we've relied on political polls to show us what voters think. mostly based on well worn demographics, gender, income, party affiliation and where you live. times have changed. today campaigns are collecting hundreds, even thousands of disparate data points about you from what you drink to what you drive to what you check out online on their own and they are not much -- and to see how much you're worth. when you put them all together

information creates what campaigns call a universe, multi-layer portrait of voters they believe can predict voting behavior, including whether you're an unlikely voter or not orro even a democrat or republican. method of communication campaigns learning to motivate voters based on what makes them tick. for example one person might get a gentle reminder about their civic duty, another one warned about consequences of not voting, using fear. today's outreach is more akin to behavioral psychology and that additional poll six. sasha eisenberg correspondent, author of "victory lab, the secret science of winning campaigns." we've had you on before. we love this stuff. in fact you previewed a chapter about this, egg heads during the rick perry boomlet that happened a couple of weeks. >> we were so young then.

>> we were so young. a new song about that. anyway, let's talk about this book, sasha. microtargeting was all the rage in the 2004 campaign, book campaign, the idea they were taking magazine prescriptions and figuring out how to find new voters. is that antiquated thinking compared to what's going on today? >> yeah. i think it's more advanced and continuous. the underlying insight people had in 2004 still holds, which is we can take, as you say, very limited information about you on your voters registration record and merge it with those hundreds of thousands of variables, many of which are coming from consumer roles, commercial databases, combined with information campaigns gather in the field, volunteers calling from phone books, knocking on your door canvassing and asking you. from those use statistical algorithms to look at the interplay of variables to see what will predict attitudes or behaviors. so the currency these days, or

microtargeting scores. basically the political version of credit scores. so attached to your voters registration will be a percentage likelihood you're going to vote for barack obama, you'll turn out to vote in november, be pro-choice or own a gun. >> this is about trying to find voters that agree with a certain candidate. this isn't about persuasion but finding a voters wasn't that motivated into doing it and trying to motivate them. you know if they so up, they are your vote. >> about sorting the electorate. the first decision the campaign needs to make is who not to talk to. people who definitely support you and turn out to vote without any extra nudge from the campaign, you don't want to waste time communicating w people who never support you, you don't want to waste time communicating with. people registered but unlikely to cast a ballot you don't want to waste time on either. you want to sort your turnout

targets, people who support you but are not habitual voters. your persuasion targets, people likely to vote but you need to convince to vote for you. >> who is doing it better? you had an example of how the obama campaign is advertising in video games. i remember they experimented with that in '08. are they doing more of it now? >> yeah, the obama campaign is way ahead of where the romney campaign is right now. a lot has to do with structural advantage of a re-election campaign. we talked about the advantages and incumbency and talk about you get the big plan, give events in the rose garden, give grants to cabinet secretaries to open bridges. we tend to underestimate the extent presidential elections are able to do research and development in politics the way most campaigns that exist for six months or 12 months can't. obama team in chicago is basically on a five-year r&d arc answering questions they sort of first posed in 2007 and the romney folks, they have some smart people here in boston but

they are playing catchup. >> it's funny. you wrote this about reporter saying how behind the curve they can be. restaurant critics remained blifious to chef's tools and techniques and persisted in describing every dish that came out of the kitchen and either grilled or broiled. what's your advice to political reporters in trying to at least scratch the surface of what's going on? frankly looks like it's more the obama campaign than romney. what's going on here? >> the general thing i would argue is for more humility on our part. smart people in campaigns argue there's a lot that's unknowable, unexplainable. not as many established laws of political physics, rules of the game as i think often political coverage suggests. we as journalists want to claim there's a way these things work. you know, people inside campaigns don't necessarily believe that.

>> sasha eisenberg, the book called "victory lab." we can download it now. we don't have to wait. download it multiple times on all your apps. anyway, thank you, sasha, good to talk to you. our friday political panel is here to wrap up this big week in politics and foreign affairs including the president's post convention bounce. but first soup of the day. this is a friday. this is a friday staple, a little spicy, cajun gum bo a good one. don't forget, follow the show on facebook. "the daily rundown."

hey. hey eddie. i brought your stuff. you don't have to do this. yes i do. i want you to keep this. it'd be weird. take care. you too. [ sighs ] so how did it go? he's upset. [ male announcer ] spend less time at gas stations with best in class fuel economy. it's our most innovative altima ever. ♪ it's our most innovative altima ever. [ dog ] we found it together.upbeat ] on a walk, walk, walk. love to walk. yeah, we found that wonderful thing. and you smiled. and threw it. and i decided i would never, ever leave it anywhere. because that wonderful, bouncy, roll-around thing...

had made you play. and that... had made you smile. [ announcer ] beneful. play. it's good for you. to provide a better benefits package... oahhh! [ male announcer ] it made a big splash with the employees. [ duck yelling ] [ male announcer ] find out more at... [ duck ] aflac! [ male announcer ] ...forbusiness.com. ♪ ha ha! ♪

[ multiple sounds making melodic tune ] ♪ [ male announcer ] at northrop grumman, every innovation, every solution, comes together for a single purpose -- to make the world a safer place. that's the value of performance. northrop grumman. as part of a heart healthy diet. that's true. ...but you still have to go to the gym. ♪ the one and only, cheerios daily flashback, this date in 1901, theodore roosevelt became the youngst president in the country. at 42 years old he was sworn in after president mckinley died

from a gunshot wound he sustained. the key to the battleground could depend on one battleground state, ohio, virginia, florida. poll shows president obama has the edge in all three. joining me senior editor for national review and columnist, roll call editor and reed wilson. you look at our polls, it is the president with small but steady leads in all three of these battleground. >> these polls show a wider lead than we've seen in most other states. the one thing that's coming through -- >> it's a bounce. the question is, is it a bounce that stays there or deflates. >> talking to republican strategists, people close to the romney campaign you hear more and more pessimism about the states, ohio is the one he worries about. if he can't win ohio his path to 270 electoral votes shrink dramatically. playing around with ad spending in pennsylvania and michigan,

pulling out of those states, goggles wrchlt it's very clear they are looking to paths to 270. they need all three of these states, at least two of the three and have to run the table everywhere else to get to 270. >> i looked at the conventions, they each had two things to do. the way to measure the bounce was to look at romney at his favorable ratings after the convention and for the president to sort of where did people think the country was at? well, the president got a bounce on right track, wrong track. seeing in national and state polls. look at these fave, unfave, 47-45 in florida, 46-45 in virginia. okay. not bad, competitive but 40-50 in ohio. i think we see what's wrong with romney in ohio and it all has to do with the tax on his wealth. >> the failure of governor romney to explain at the convention how he was going to make middle class lives better was the great missing element of his message there and one of the reasons he didn't get as much of

a bounce as he could have or that obama did out of his convention. >> when you're here and i know you cover a lot of state races, senate races, as well as presidential battle grounds. how much does this have an impact? >> it's having an impact in certain races. certain places they didn't think would be in play, north dakota, want to hold onto the north dakota seat in particular. back to ohio, i think brown had a good morning looking at poll numbers, counting on, hoping the president will boost his numbers there. >> going back to ohio with the akin debacle in micro, it's clear the republicans they need one other -- they needed florida, ohio to pop. our polling is showing that's not happening. >> the republican path to 51 seats as senate majority, they are looking for different places to go. we're seeing republicans start to spend money in maine. democrats worried about connecticut.

>> more real than people realize. >> that being said the republican path to 51 seats in the senate, a lot more circuitous than it was a few months ago. >> is the romney campaign in a better place today on this foreign policy argument than they were 48 hours ago? >> i think they are. i think that the sort of confusion in the administration about the status of egypt has to some extent come to romney's rescue. i think at the end of the day, most voters are not going to be voting on this basis. the counter attacks both ways are not going to -- >> should romney pin it back to the economy now? >> i think so. i do. i don't think this message that obama's weakness invited the trouble we're having in the middle east is going to work. >> that "washington post" story, it seems as if they want a way of, quote, fixing the narrative, the idea that the romney campaign said, well, you can criticizes us on timing but we were right. they want to go full charge. seems the advisers want to have

a fight. >> they want to have this fight, but the people at the top of the romney campaign would rather be talking about the economy and that's why you saw him step back to that issue yesterday. >> seemed like a mixed message. i was surprised when i opened up my "washington post" this morning. coming back we're going to talk about trilgss. opened up the washington post this morning. when we come back, we will talk about the trilogies and does the third of anything become more popular? who is the most recent candidate to win the white house but lose both the state where he was born and the state where he is living? that is who many say mitt romney will model himself after, james poke. spent much of his time in tennessee and in the 1944 election, he lost both states. thanks to@dwdoctor for that question. if you have a trivia suggestion, e-mail us. music: "make someone happy" ♪it's so important to make someone happy.♪ it's so important to make someone happy.♪ ♪make just one heart to heart you - you sing to♪

♪one smile that cheers you ♪one face that lights when it nears you.♪ ♪and you will be happy too. [ sneezes ] [ male announcer ] if you have yet to master the quiet sneeze... ♪ [ sneezes ]

[ male announcer ] you may be an allergy muddler. try zyrtec®. it gives you powerful allergy relief. and zyrtec® is different than claritin® because zyrtec® starts working at hour 1 on the first day you take it. claritin® doesn't start working until hour 3. [ sneezes ] [ male announcer ] zyrtec®. love the air. join zyrtec® rewards. save up to $7 on zyrtec® products.

what bernanke is doing is saying that the president is saying what is wrong, and the president is saying it is coming back and bernanke is saying no, we have to print more money. i don't think that what bernanke is doing is going to help the economy. >> and now back to the panel. that is mitt romney trying to put the best spin on this, and is that a valid point that, hey, what ben bernanke is saying that the economic policies in place are not working so i have to do that. >> how do you distill that into a answer and quan titative easig is an esoteric argument to make when the real point is that the economy is not doing terribly well. one thing that stood out to me in the nbc/marist poll is how well obama is doing on the question of the economy. >> i go back to that and it feels like the bill clinton bounce and he made the right track speech and making the case, hey, it does not feel and you may not think it s but it is the right traction. >> it has closed the biggest

vulnerability that obama had. >> and he did what he had to do, but it is not the best speech he has given, but he made an argument somewhat that the economy is getting better and the republicans are saying that the economy is worse, but we have qumele more rounds of job numbers to go. well, it is beating up the fed which is good politics now, but is it good politics in the fall? >> well, the temptation for the romney campaign is to set up a wall street versus the main street where the fed is helping wall street and not main street which is a wrong turn for them. >> not something that the republican campaign would do. and so "toy story 3" and "lord of the rings" and all threes that were better than the ones or two? shameless plugs? >> the charles kessler book, "i am the change. "ooh i am looking -- i am

looking to reading it. >> and my little sister's play off broadway. >> and a little publication "hotline" and i came from there and so did shira and i don't know why you gave me my start, but anyway. within the first two days the first big breaking news was a guy named joe biden dropping out of the race. a special two-day hotline went out. that is it for "daily rundown." have a great weekend. coming up next is chris jansing. bye-bye. with the spark cash card from capital one,

olaf's pizza palace gets the most rewards of any small business credit card! pizza!!!!! [ garth ] olaf's small business earns 2% cash back on every purchase, every day! put it on my spark card! [ high-pitched ] nice doin' business with you! [ garth ] why settle for less? great businesses deserve the most rewards! awesome!!! [ male announcer ] the spark business card from capital one. choose unlimited rewards with 2% cash back or double miles on every purchase, every day! what's in your wallet? wthe future of our medicare andr electiosocial security. for... man 1: i want facts. straight talk. tell me your plan... and what it means for me. woman 2: i'm tired of the negative ads and political spin. that won't help me decide. man 2: i earned my medicare and social security. and i deserve some answers. anncr: where do the candidates stand on issues that... affect seniors today and in the future? find out with the aarp voters' guide at earnedasay.org

oh, hey alex. just picking up some, brochures, posters copies of my acceptance speech. great! it's always good to have a backup plan, in case i get hit by a meteor. wow, your hair looks great. didn't realize they did photoshop here. hey, good call on those mugs. can't let 'em see what you're drinking. you know, i'm glad we're both running a nice, clean race. no need to get nasty. here's your "honk if you had an affair with taylor" yard sign. looks good. [ male announcer ] fedex office. now save 50% on banners. [ male announcer ] from our nation's networks... ♪ ...to our city streets... ♪ ...to skies around the world... ♪ ...northrop grumman's security solutions are invisibly at work, protecting people's lives... [ soldier ] move out! [ male announcer ] ...without their even knowing it. that's the value of performance. northrop grumman.

she was a picky eater. well, now i'm her dietitian, and last year, she wasn't eating so well. so i recommended boost complete nutritional drink to help her get the nutrition she was missing. and now she drinks it every day. well, it tastes great! [ male announcer ] boost has 26 essential vitamins and minerals, including calcium and vitamin d to support strong bones, and 10 grams of protein to help maintain muscle. all with a delicious taste. [ dietitian ] now, nothing keeps mom from doing what she loves -- being my mom. [ male announcer ] stay strong, stay active with boost. jansing. major developments this morning in the race for president. after being deadlocked for months barack obama is pulling ahead of mitt romney in both national polls and in key battleground states, and increasingly caustic debates over how to handle the events in the middleel east could move the race m